I hate predictions. I hate predictions as much or even more than I hate stats. The only stat that matters come playoff time are wins and losses. The QMJHL playoff matchups are set and it’s wide open, anything can happen in the playoffs, but there are definitely some teams that are heavily favored. There’s no easy games or easy series. Any team is beatable on any given night, especially come playoff time and that’s what makes the QMJHL so intriguing.
The predictions are starting to fly. We all know the top teams; we all know what they are capable of. There’s a massive difference between potential and delivering come playoff time. Character, skill, grit and belief in team systems and trust can propel any team to an upset. There’s always one or two upsets come playoff time in the QMJHL. Before you can make predictions, let’s take a look at the framework of an upset. What’s the blueprint to a major upset?
A) Eliminating Time and Space
Skilled teams during the regular season hate being pressured come playoff time. Some of those teams believe their skill is enough to get them by. Enough to get them through. Unfortunately, that’s simply not the case.
B) Multiple Injuries to Key Players
Solid regular season teams that may be putting up great numbers but suffer from depth issues are sure to struggle with one or two injuries pop up before or during the playoffs. Injuries are part of the game, and you need your entire team to step up, but it’s tall ask for them if they haven’t been given any responsibility throughout the season.
C) Complacency
Perhaps the most crippling aspect of any team entering the playoffs is complacency. When one team is complacent, you can almost see the believability surge within their opponent. Believability and an us versus the world attitude has carried a lot of teams to championship glory.
D) Physicality
Hit or be hit. Taking a hit to make a play takes on an entirely different meaning in the post season. Time and space is one thing, but being physically dominated by a team that is eager to mix it up and impose their will on their opponent almost always leads to an upset.
E) Out Coached and Underachieve
This is one area I don’t like to talk about because I have so much respect for the coaching fraternity, but most playoff upsets come down to coaching and setting their team and players up for success. It happens in the pros and in the junior ranks.
Coaches can have a bad series as well and in many cases if they can’t coach, teach and adjust their systems on the fly or rely too heavily on their skilled players and don’t use their depth, it usually becomes a very short series or ends with them looking for new a job. Being out coached or having players that underachieve and struggle with the pressure, not sure what’s worse, but that shit happens more than you think come playoff time at every level.
Hockey isn’t played on paper, it’s played on the ice so let’s just get past all the predictions and crystal ball stuff and just enjoy the league and the post season for what it is.
Titans vs Mooseheads
I hate predictions as much or even more than I hate stats. The only stat that matters come playoff time are wins and losses. I will say this, the series between the Halifax Mooseheads and Acadie Bathurst Titans should be very interesting. Gordie Dwyer has the Titan playing inspired hockey right now, they’re a systematic juggernaut. The Herd have their fair share of injuries, but definitely hold the upper hand from a goaltending perspective, but the Titan are one of those teams that aren’t going to go away. If the Herd can neutralize the Titan’s top trio and get in and disrupt the Titan’s D-corps they will be successful. On the other hand, if the Titan get in on the forecheck they can wreak havoc. This one will come down to the depth and specialty teams. This is one is going to be a great series to follow, it has the make up to be a high scoring affair, 80’s styles offensive free wheeling brand of hockey. The team that can lock down the neutral zone and limit scoring chances off the rush will prevail. If the Titan were to get past the Herd, obviously people would call that an upset given the point separation in the standings, but this series is going to be very intense.
Wildcats vs Sags
The series between the Moncton Wildcats and Chicoutimi Sagueneens is going to be interesting to see which team prevails. Here are my thoughts on the Sags Wildcat Series.
Eagles vs Oceanic
The Cape Breton Eagles Rimouski Oceanic series is going to be a long intense physical affair, everyone is looking at the Eagles to be the team that can really make some noise, but don’t underestimate the Oceanic and the value they’re going to gain from this experience, they’re no push over, that series will all come down to goaltending.
Drakkar vs Isles
The Baie Comeau Drakkar take on the Charlottetown Islanders and Jim Hulton. This is going to be one of those series that will be great for the Drakkar to experience especially given their high expectations. The Drakkar’s core group experienced a tough series loss last season, so they will be ready, but there’s no easy games vs the Isles especially if they get quality goaltending. The Drakkar will be ready, but so will Hulton’s group. This series is going to be physical test for the Drakkar. It’s a great test for them to get acclimatized to what playoff hockey is all about and what it’s going to take to win.
Volts vs Sea Dogs
This series is another great test as far as experience goes for the Volts. The Dogs won’t go quietly, they have been through a lot coming down the stretch and are very well coached team. If their goaltending is stellar, they could possibly steal one, but that’s a big if. The Volts transition the puck as good if not better than anyone else in the league, they’re a hungry group eager to prove how good they are. From top to bottom, the Volts boast a very deep, highly skilled, gritty team that can play any style it takes to win. This series will be a good tune up for the Volts, they will be focused and driven, they just have to maintain that focus throughout the series and try to end it as quickly as possible.
Huskies vs Olympiques
This series is no bargain. This is going to be physical. The Huskies need to bring their skill and team game. The Olympiques have a lot of pride and aren’t going to go quietly. They compete and they work hard. The Huskies will definitely benefit from playing a team like this. The Huskies need to approach this series with a “don’t get cute, just get it done” mentality. The Huskies will be more than ready to prove they’re a top contender, and they need to keep that focused energy and drive all the way throughout this series. This series is a “message sender” as far as I’m concerned for the Huskies. They will try to dismantle Gatineau in every way, but you can’t get ahead of yourselves with that mindset. It’s all about execution, and the Huskies will be ready to do that.
Victo vs Shaw
This series will be worth the price of admission. The Tigres and Cataractes might be separated by a lot of points in the regular season standings, but the Cataractes are a young talented team that has underachieved during the regular season which makes them a worthy and very dangerous opponent for a Tigres team that has championship aspirations. The Tigres are great team, a team that can play any style, but if they rely too heavily on just playing a “skilled” perimeter style game, Shawinigan will give them fits. This one should be very interesting to follow, it will be a very intense series.
Pheonix vs Armanda
Anything goes. This series will no doubt be as close as the placement in the standings. Both teams have a great blend of young and veteran talent just waiting to showcase what they can do in the postseason. It’s cliché as hell, but goaltending, specialty teams and coaching will reign supreme in this series. The coaching staff that can game plan and get their team to believe and pay the price or sacrifice the most will see the 2nd round.
As far as predictions go, it should be very interesting to see what players, teams and coaches show up, execute or get upset.
Let the fun begin.
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The Titans are surging at the right time, so are the Eagles. One of those look like an upset. I’d personally (if SH doesn’t go far) like to see CB get to the final. I think they are the only Maritime team that hasn’t made it yet.
Been lots of SJ fans asking if they can hire Gardiner for another temporary stint. 😂 I can’t blame them, look at his record.
Not only is it the playoffs, and anything can happen, but they’re teenagers. About as predictable as how much snow we’ll get in 2030.
Good Luck to all the teams continuing on.
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